The road to Indianapolis is heating up, and the Michigan Wolverines (+375) have solidified their position as the definitive betting favorites to win the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. Despite a recent high-profile stumble against Duke, oddsmakers at major sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings have kept Michigan atop the board, signaling immense confidence in their metrics-based dominance. This comes as Flutter Entertainment—the parent company of industry giant FanDuel—announced a strategic pivot to capture a record-breaking handle for this year's tournament, driven largely by the aggressive expansion of its "FanDuel Predicts" platform into massive non-betting markets like Texas and California.
Michigan Wolverines Hold Firm as Title Favorites
It has been a tumultuous February for the top-ranked teams, but the betting market remains steadfast in its support of the Wolverines. Following a tight 68-63 loss to the Duke Blue Devils on February 21, many expected a shakeup at the top of the futures board. Instead, Michigan's odds shortened slightly or held steady at +375 across most books, including BetMGM and FanDuel. This resilience is a testament to their advanced efficiency metrics; they rank top-5 in both adjusted offense and defense, a statistical profile that historically correlates strongly with national championship runs.
While the Wolverines control the pole position, the gap is narrowing. Arizona (+450) and Duke (+420) are hot on their heels, creating a clear tier of "blue blood" favorites that has separated itself from the field. Arizona, despite dropping recent games in a brutal Big 12 gauntlet, continues to attract significant sharp money due to their NBA-caliber frontcourt. Meanwhile, Duke's victory over Michigan has validated them as a legitimate title contender, with freshman sensation Cameron Boozer seeing his Wooden Award odds shorten alongside the team's title hopes.
FanDuel Predicts: The Game-Changer for March Madness 2026
The biggest story off the court this March isn't just about who is betting, but where they are betting from. In a recent earnings call, Flutter Entertainment CEO Peter Jackson highlighted a soft end to the NFL betting season, attributing a recent slowdown to lackluster matchups. However, the company is projecting a massive rebound for March Madness, fueled by the timely expansion of FanDuel Predicts.
This prediction market product has recently launched sports event contracts in 18 states, most notably Texas and California—two massive population centers where traditional sports betting remains illegal. By allowing users in these states to trade on binary outcomes (e.g., "Will Michigan win the National Championship?"), FanDuel is effectively unlocking millions of new customers for the 2026 tournament. Industry analysts expect this to drive a significant surge in overall transaction volume, potentially making March Madness 2026 the most wagered-on event in history despite the regulatory headwinds in key states.
The Rise of Prediction Markets
The launch of FanDuel Predicts in these "untapped" territories represents a major shift in the sports betting industry news 2026 cycle. Unlike traditional sportsbooks that rely on vigorish, these prediction markets operate more like a stock exchange. This model has proven incredibly popular with younger demographics and could be the catalyst that reverses the betting slowdown Flutter reported in Q4 2025.
2026 NCAA Tournament Futures & Betting Trends
Beyond the top three, the March Madness 2026 odds reveal plenty of value for bettors willing to look down the board. The Houston Cougars (+1100) and UConn Huskies (+1500) are currently priced as mid-tier contenders, offering substantial value for teams with recent Final Four pedigree. A key trend to watch this season is the performance of home favorites in late February; data shows that top-tier teams looking to avenge early-season losses are covering the spread at a clip of over 62% in the final weeks of conference play.
Another emerging trend for 2026 is the "metrics vs. eye test" debate. Teams like Illinois (+1300) have fluctuated wildly in the polls but remain darlings of the analytics community. Smart bettors are eyeing these squads for Final Four runs, knowing that efficiency margins often predict tournament success better than win-loss records.
Best Sportsbooks for March Madness 2026
For bettors looking to get in on the action, choosing the right platform is critical. FanDuel is currently the leader for props and prediction markets, especially for users in California and Texas who previously had no legal options. DraftKings remains the go-to for deep futures markets and seed betting, offering unique lines on "To Make the Sweet 16" that aren't available elsewhere. Meanwhile, BetMGM has been aggressive with their "Bet & Get" promotions for new users, making them a strong contender for casual fans looking to build a bankroll before Selection Sunday.
As we approach the tournament, the betting landscape is more dynamic than ever. Whether you're backing the favorites like Michigan or trading prediction contracts in California, the 2026 NCAA Tournament promises to deliver high stakes and even higher drama.
