With the calendar turning to late January and MLB Spring Training reporting dates just two weeks away, a familiar winter chill has settled over the hot stove. As of January 29, 2026, two of the market's premier starting pitchers—Zac Gallen and Framber Valdez—remain unsigned, locked in a high-stakes standoff that has front offices from Philadelphia to Detroit recalculating their budgets.

The silence surrounding these aces is deafening. While the Blue Jays made an early splash signing Dylan Cease to a massive $210 million deal and the Orioles shocked the industry by landing Pete Alonso, the market for MLB Free Agency 2026 has ground to a halt for the remaining top-tier arms. Both Gallen and Valdez carry the heavy anchor of draft pick compensation after rejecting qualifying offers, a price tag that has scared off penny-pinching contenders. As pitchers and catchers prepare to report to Florida and Arizona in mid-February, we analyze the deadlock freezing the MLB pitching market analysis.

The Framber Valdez Enigma: Durability vs. Demand

Framber Valdez entered the offseason as arguably the safest bet on the board. The former Astros lefty posted another trademark season in 2025, logging 192 innings with a 3.66 ERA and maintaining his elite ground-ball rate. Yet, the 32-year-old remains a free agent. Why?

The primary hurdle appears to be contract length. Framber Valdez contract news suggests his camp is digging in for a five- or six-year deal, while teams are hesitant to commit past his age-36 season. There is also the matter of the "intangibles." Industry whispers have not quietly ignored the bizarre on-field friction seen last season between Valdez and catcher César Salazar, raising questions about clubhouse fit for a veteran ace.

The Baltimore Orioles have emerged as the most logical landing spot. General Manager Mike Elias has deep ties to Valdez from their shared time in Houston, and despite spending big on Alonso, Baltimore still has a glaring hole atop their rotation. However, with the Orioles recently trading for Shane Baz, they may feel their rotation is "good enough" to wait Valdez out for a price drop.

Zac Gallen and the Scott Boras Factor

If Valdez is a case of valuation gaps, Zac Gallen is a classic case of "pillow contract" potential. Represented by super-agent Scott Boras, Gallen is navigating Zac Gallen rumors that are far less optimistic than they were twelve months ago. The right-hander struggled through a "down" 2025 campaign, posting a 4.83 ERA in 33 starts—a far cry from his Cy Young-caliber peaks.

Boras clients are notorious for waiting until the eleventh hour, and Gallen’s situation fits the mold perfectly. Teams are wary of surrendering a draft pick for a pitcher coming off a career-worst statistical year. The prevailing theory among executives is that Gallen may be forced into a high-AAV, short-term deal with opt-outs—a chance to rebuild his value and re-enter the market in 2027 or 2028.

Could a reunion be in the cards? The Diamondbacks know Gallen better than anyone and have a rotation need, but the Philadelphia Phillies rumors have also persisted. A deal with Philadelphia would bring the New Jersey native close to home, though President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski has publicly stated he is reluctant to exceed the highest luxury tax tier for a reclamation project.

The Qualifying Offer Standoff

The specter of the Qualifying Offer (QO) cannot be overstated in this deadlock. Because both pitchers rejected the one-year, ~$22 million offer from their former clubs, any signing team (other than the Astros or Diamondbacks) must forfeit draft capital and international bonus pool money.

For a team like the Tigers or Padres, who are operating on the fringes of contention, the cost is twofold: the multimillion-dollar salary plus the loss of a future top prospect. This system has cooled the MLB Hot Stove 2026 significantly for players in the "very good but not generational" tier. We saw it happen to Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery in previous years, and history is repeating itself with Gallen and Valdez. As February approaches, leverage shifts from the player to the club.

Potential Landing Spots and Predictions

With MLB Spring Training reporting dates looming around February 14th, urgency will soon force action. Here is where the industry sees things breaking:

  • Baltimore Orioles: The favorites for Valdez. They have the money, the connection, and the window to win now.
  • Philadelphia Phillies: A dark horse for Gallen on a one-year "prove it" deal if his market completely collapses.
  • San Francisco Giants: Perpetual runners-up who missed out on other top arms; they have the budget to absorb a short-term overpay.
  • Boston Red Sox: After signing Ranger Suárez, they may still look to add a right-handed stabilizer like Gallen if the price is right.

The staring contest is nearly over. One of these aces will blink, likely signing a deal that looks very different from what they envisioned in November. Until then, the Hot Stove simmers on low heat.