The betting lines for Super Bowl LX are officially set, and the narrative heading into Levi's Stadium is one of historic resonance and redemption. The Seattle Seahawks have opened as 4.5-point favorites over the New England Patriots, setting the stage for a dramatic rematch of Super Bowl XLIX. As the football world descends on Santa Clara for the February 8 showdown, early action is already testing the sportsbooks. While Sam Darnold’s MVP odds are shortening by the hour, sharp bettors are fixating on a powerful historical angle: the “dog streak.” Underdogs have covered the spread in five consecutive Super Bowls, a trend that makes the Patriots a dangerous opponent despite Seattle’s dominant 14-3 regular season.
Seahawks vs. Patriots: The Rematch 11 Years in the Making
It has been over a decade since Malcolm Butler’s goal-line interception sealed a Patriots dynasty and left Seattle stunned in Arizona. Now, the scripts have flipped. The Seahawks, led by a rejuvenated Sam Darnold and head coach Mike Macdonald, return to the Super Bowl boasting the league’s top-ranked defense and an offense that led the NFC in efficiency. Seattle’s path to Super Bowl LX included a gritty NFC Championship victory over the Rams, cementing their status as the team to beat.
On the other side, the New England Patriots have defied all preseason expectations. Led by second-year sensation Drake Maye, who is vying to become the youngest quarterback in NFL history to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, New England finished the season 14-3. Despite matching Seattle’s record, they find themselves as distinct underdogs. This 4.5-point spread reflects the market’s confidence in Seattle’s veteran-laden roster compared to New England’s youthful exuberance, but the Patriots have thrived in this role, boasting a 6-1 ATS record as underdogs this season.
Analyzing the Odds: The 4.5-Point Spread
The spread opened at Seattle -4.5 and has held steady, a significant number that demands respect. In the modern NFL, a line pushing past the key number of 3 often signals a decisive perceived advantage. However, the Super Bowl LX point spread is colliding head-on with a powerful betting trend. Starting with Tampa Bay in Super Bowl LV, underdogs have not only covered but often won outright in five straight championships. Most recently, the Philadelphia Eagles upset the Chiefs as 1.5-point underdogs in Super Bowl LIX, continuing the streak.
Bettors backing the Seahawks are looking at the mismatch in experience and defensive DVOA, where Seattle holds a clear edge. Those taking the points with New England are banking on the "dog streak" and Drake Maye’s uncanny poise in high-pressure moments. With the total set at 45.5, oddsmakers are expecting a tighter, defensive battle similar to the 28-24 scoreline we saw in their last meeting, rather than a shootout.
Sam Darnold MVP Odds & Prop Market Movers
One of the most compelling stories of the 2025-26 season has been the resurgence of Sam Darnold. After signing a three-year deal with Seattle last March, Darnold threw for over 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns, silencing critics and replacing Geno Smith with authority. Consequently, Sam Darnold’s MVP odds sit at +125, making him the clear favorite to take home the Pete Rozelle Trophy if Seattle wins. His connection with Jaxon Smith-Njigba—who led the league in receiving yards—provides a safe floor for prop bettors looking at passing yardage overs.
Conversely, Drake Maye offers value at +250. If New England pulls off the upset, it will likely be on the arm of their young signal-caller. Beyond the QBs, keep an eye on Super Bowl 60 prop bets involving defensive turnovers. Both teams ranked in the top five for takeaways, making "Total Interceptions Over 1.5" a popular early pick.
The Coin Toss and Novelty Props
No Super Bowl preview is complete without the classics. The Super Bowl coin toss prediction remains a 50/50 proposition, but trends show the NFC has won the toss in three of the last four years. For those looking for non-gameplay action, the National Anthem over/under is set at 1 minute 58 seconds, and the "Gatorade Color" prop sees Blue as the favorite, matching the Seahawks' primary scheme.
Final Verdict: Trends vs. Talent
Super Bowl LX presents a classic clash of narrative versus numbers. The Seahawks are the more complete team on paper, justifying the 4.5-point spread. However, the resilience of the Patriots and the overwhelming weight of recent NFL underdog betting trends suggest this game will come down to the wire. If history—and the last five Super Bowls—is any indicator, taking the points with New England might be the sharpest play on the board, even if Seattle ultimately lifts the trophy.
