The greatest rivalry in international sports reaches its boiling point today, February 19, as Team USA faces Team Canada for the women's ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan. This isn't just a game; it is the latest chapter in a decades-long saga that defines the sport. With the puck drop scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET at the Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena, the betting markets are reacting to one of the most lopsided preliminary performances in history.

For the first time in recent memory, the Americans enter the gold medal game as heavy favorites, riding an undefeated 6-0 record and a staggering 31-1 goal differential. However, history warns us never to count out Canada when gold is on the line. Below, we break down the latest USA vs Canada women's hockey odds, key matchup trends, and our expert betting picks for the 2026 Olympic finale.

USA vs Canada Gold Medal Game Odds

Sportsbooks have adjusted their lines significantly following Team USA’s 5-0 shutout of Canada in the preliminary round. The Americans are positioned as the clear team to beat, with odds reflecting their dominance throughout the tournament.

  • Moneyline: USA (-455) | Canada (+345)
  • Puck Line (Spread): USA -1.5 (-150) | Canada +1.5 (+126)
  • Total Goals (Over/Under): 5.5 (Over +118 | Under -140)

Odds are subject to change. The implied probability of the USA moneyline sits around 82%, a massive shift from the near-even odds seen in Beijing 2022.

Team USA: The Unstoppable Juggernaut

The Americans have looked flawless in Milan. Led by goaltender Aerin Frankel, who has been nothing short of a brick wall, the U.S. defense has allowed only a single goal in the entire tournament. Offensively, the team is clicking on all cylinders. Defender Caroline Harvey leads the tournament in points, driving play from the blue line, while veteran captain Hilary Knight and young stars like Hannah Bilka and Laila Edwards provide depth that no other nation has been able to match.

The psychological edge also belongs to the Americans. They didn't just beat Canada in the group stage; they dismantled them 5-0. That victory extended their winning streak over their northern rivals to seven games, including a sweep of the pre-Olympic Rivalry Series. For bettors, the question isn't if the U.S. has the talent, but if they can maintain their composure under the immense pressure of a gold medal final.

Team Canada: The Clutch Underdogs

If there is one team that thrives in adversity, it is Canada. Despite a rocky tournament that included a narrow 2-1 semifinal win over Switzerland, the Canadians possess the ultimate X-factor: Marie-Philip Poulin. Known as "Captain Clutch," Poulin scored two goals in the semis and has a history of scoring golden goals in Olympic finals (2010, 2014, 2022).

Canada is the defending Olympic champion, having won gold in Beijing. While they have struggled to contain the American speed this year, their roster is laden with veterans like Sarah Nurse, Natalie Spooner, and goalie Ann-Renée Desbiens who know how to win ugly. The betting value on Canada lies in their resilience; they have successfully turned gold medal games into gritty, low-scoring wars of attrition in the past.

Best Bets and Expert Picks

Top Pick: Under 5.5 Goals (-140)

While the U.S. offense has been explosive, gold medal games historically tighten up. Four of the last six Olympic finals between these two nations have ended with a 3-2 scoreline. Canada knows they cannot trade chances with the Americans in a track meet. Expect Canada to clog the neutral zone and rely on Desbiens to keep it close. Even the 5-0 blowout in the prelims stayed under this total. In a do-or-die scenario, defense usually reigns supreme.

Value Play: Canada +1.5 Puck Line (+126)

Betting against this American team feels dangerous, but the +1.5 spread offers significant value. The gap between these programs is rarely five goals wide. The preliminary blowout was an anomaly in a rivalry defined by overtime thrillers and one-goal games. With Poulin back in rhythm and Canada fighting for national pride, expecting a closer contest than the odds suggest is a smart contrarian play.

Prop to Watch: Hilary Knight Anytime Goal Scorer

In what is likely her final Olympic run, Hilary Knight has a flair for the dramatic. As the emotional leader of Team USA, she sees significant power-play time. If the U.S. breaks through Canada's defensive shell, expect Knight to be parked in front of the net causing havoc.

Rivalry Trends to Know Before You Bet

Understanding the history is crucial for handicapping this matchup. Here is how the rivalry stacks up:

  • Gold Medal Meetings: This is the 7th time USA and Canada have met for Olympic gold. Canada holds a 4-2 edge in these finals.
  • Recent Dominance: USA has won 7 straight games vs. Canada across all competitions.
  • Close Calls: Excluding the recent 5-0 win, the previous five meetings were decided by an average of just 1.8 goals.

The stage is set for a classic. Will the USA complete their perfect tournament, or will Canada's championship pedigree spark a massive upset? Tune in to NBC or Peacock at 1:10 p.m. ET to witness history.