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WNBA Draft Lottery 2025 Odds and Analysis for the No.1 Overall Pick

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By Ehimen Aimudogbe - - 5 Mins Read
WNBA Draft Lottery
WNBA Draft Lottery | WNBA

The 2025 WNBA Draft Lottery is in the books, with the Dallas Wings winning the No. 1 overall pick and the right to select UConn star Paige Bueckers. Other teams that round off the lottery include the Los Angeles Sparks, Chicago Sky, and Washington Mystics. 

“I think we’ve seen how impactful lottery picks have been, especially in the past few seasons. So, we're super excited,”  Wings forward and team representative Maddy Siegrist said

Although the Sparks had the best individual odds to win the lottery (44.2%), the Wings had swap rights with the Sky’s first-round pick this year via the 2023 Marina Mabrey trade.

That meant they were bound to emerge top pick if either they or the Sky won the trophy, at a combined chance (45.4%) of happening at the event. Ultimately, things swung in Wings' way. The event marked the second time in history that the Wings received the No. 1 overall pick, repeating their 2021 feat, when they selected Charli Collier, who was out of the league after two seasons.

Expectations are that they'd have much more success this time around with their pick, should it end up being Paige Bueckers. Bueckers was named Naismith Player of the Year as a freshman but played only 17 total games the next two seasons due to a string of injuries, including a torn ACL, a torn meniscus, and a tibial plateau fracture.

Upon returning to full health last season, the 6-foot guard swiftly reminded everyone that she's a generational talent, and someone who looks on the right path to clinching WNBA awards similar to her College feats. Bueckers put up 21.9 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.2 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game as she led the Huskies to the Final Four, earned the Big East Player of the Year, and First-Team All-American honors.

Other intriguing prospects aside Bueckers include USC’s Kiki Iriafen, LSU’s Aneesah Morrow, and Notre Dame’s Sonia Citron – all potential lottery picks from the college ranks who have exhausted their eligibility. Other likely first-round picks include Notre Dame’s Olivia Miles, UConn’s Azzi Fudd, and UCLA’s Lauren Betts. That said, we explore the various machinations behind the 2025 WNBA Draft Lottery.

2025 WNBA Draft Analysis, Odds, and Draft Order

Here's the complete order of the first round of the 2025 WNBA Draft, which will be held in April. 

  • Dallas Wings
  • Los Angeles Sparks
  • Chicago Sky
  • Washington Mystics
  • Golden State Valkyries
  • Washington Mystics (via Atlanta Dream)
  • New York Liberty (via Phoenix Mercury)
  • Indiana Fever
  • Seattle Storm
  • Chicago Sky (via Connecticut Sun)
  • Minnesota Lynx
  • Phoenix Mercury (via New York Liberty)

Going into Sunday's draw, the lottery would contain only four teams, the four sides that did not make the playoffs in the most recent season: the Sparks, Wings, Sky, and Mystics. Having posted a 25-55 record over the past two seasons, the Sparks' 25-55 record meant they had the best odds to land the No. 1 pick. Here's how the odds shook out before the Dallas Wings emerged overall pick:

Team

Odds for No. 1 Pick

Combined 2023-24 Record

Los Angeles Sparks

44.2%

25-55

Dallas Wings

22.7%

31-49

Chicago Sky

22.7%

31-49

Washington Mystics 

10.4%

33-47

 

The Wings eventually won the No. 1 pick, offering the franchise a significant opportunity as they enter a transitional phase under a new head coach. The team also has a major free agency period where they will look to re-sign star forward Satou Sabally, boosting their squad depth and richness ahead of the 2024/25 season.

Final Remarks

The WNBA Draft Lottery 2025 has come to a close, with Dallas Wings winning the chance to pick the No. 1 overall pick, with all eyes on UConn's Bueckers, broadly considered a generational talent. Wings forward and representative at the lottery, Maddy Siegrist, said the team is "super excited" about the lottery pick.

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