As the college basketball regular season hits its final major Saturday, a distinct hierarchy has emerged in the futures market. With Selection Sunday just two weeks away on March 15, oddsmakers are reporting a widening gap between an elite triumvirate of programs and the rest of the nation. Michigan, Duke, and Arizona have separated themselves as the clear-cut betting favorites for the 2026 National Championship in Indianapolis, leaving bettors to decide whether to back the heavy chalk or hunt for value in a thinning field.

The 'Big Three' Dominate the Board

For the first time this season, sportsbooks have adjusted their lines to reflect a three-horse race. The 2026 March Madness odds now show Michigan sitting as the undisputed frontrunner at +320, a price that has shortened significantly following their dominant run through the Big Ten. Close behind are the Duke Blue Devils (+380) and Arizona Wildcats (+450). To put this separation into perspective, the next closest contender—defending Big 12 champion Kansas—has drifted to +1200.

"We haven't seen a tier separation this distinct since the 2021 season," said a senior oddsmaker in Las Vegas. "The public is hammering Michigan and Duke, and the metrics back it up. These three teams are the only ones ranking in the top five of both offensive and defensive efficiency."

Michigan: Dusty May's Wolverines Are the Team to Beat

In just his second year in Ann Arbor, head coach Dusty May has built a juggernaut. The story of the season has been the seamless integration of the freshman class, led by Flint native and "Mr. Basketball" Trey McKenney. The 6-foot-4 guard has been a revelation, averaging over 18 points per game and providing the Wolverines with a go-to scorer in crunch time.

Michigan's rise to the top of the NCAA tournament betting favorites list isn't just about star power; it's about depth. With fellow freshman Winters Grady stretching defenses from the perimeter and the gritty play of New Zealand forward Oscar Goodman, the Wolverines have arguably the most complete roster in the country. Their +320 odds reflect a team that has lost only three times all season and looks primed for a deep run to Lucas Oil Stadium in April.

Duke: The Boozer Twins Era Taking Shape

Following the departure of Cooper Flagg to the NBA, many expected a slight regression in Durham. Instead, Jon Scheyer has simply reloaded with another historic recruiting class. The arrival of the Boozer twins—Cameron and Cayden—has kept the Blue Devils firmly in the title conversation. Cameron Boozer, the 6-foot-9 power forward, has lived up to his No. 2 overall ranking, dominating the ACC paint with a blend of power and finesse that reminds older fans of his father, Carlos.

Duke's current odds of +380 offer slightly more value than Michigan, and for bettors who value tournament pedigree, the Blue Devils are an attractive option. The chemistry between Cayden at the point and Cameron in the post gives Duke an offensive fluidity that few teams can match. If they can navigate the ACC Tournament without injury, they could easily enter the Big Dance as a No. 1 overall seed.

Arizona: The West Coast Heavyweight

Rounding out the "Big Three" is Tommy Lloyd's Arizona Wildcats at +450. The addition of freshman phenom Koa Peat has transformed Arizona's frontcourt. Peat, a consensus top-10 recruit who committed last spring, has given the Wildcats a physical edge they lacked in previous March campaigns. His ability to switch defensively and finish through contact makes him a nightmare matchup for the smaller lineups often seen in the NCAA tournament.

Arizona's high-tempo offense continues to rank among the nation's best, but it's their improved half-court defense that has sharp bettors buying stock. With the Final Four being held in Indianapolis—a familiar stage for Big Ten teams—Arizona will need to prove they can handle the physicality of the Midwest, but their talent level is undeniable.

Best of the Rest: Is There Value Down the Board?

With the top three teams absorbing so much of the handle, value has opened up for contrarian bettors looking at the field. North Carolina (+1400) remains a dangerous floater, largely due to the impact of five-star forward Caleb Wilson. If the Tar Heels can find consistency, their ceiling rivals that of the top tier.

Meanwhile, the March Madness bubble watch is heating up for mid-tier programs, but for futures bettors, the focus remains at the top. The implied probability of Michigan, Duke, or Arizona winning the title now sits near 45%, a staggering number for a tournament known for its chaos. As Selection Sunday approaches, the window to grab these prices is closing fast.