The betting landscape for the 2026 NFL Conference Championship has been upended in historic fashion. Following the confirmation that Denver Broncos star quarterback Bo Nix has suffered a season-ending broken ankle, sportsbooks have swung the betting lines violently. The Broncos are now listed as 4.5-point home underdogs against the New England Patriots—the largest spread against a home team in a conference title game since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. As Jarrett Stidham prepares to face Drake Maye, and the Rams vs Seahawks point spread tightens in the NFC, bettors are witnessing one of the most volatile weekends in NFL playoff history.

Broncos Set Record as Massive Home Underdogs

The news of Bo Nix's injury has triggered a market correction rarely seen at this stage of the postseason. Before the injury news broke, lookahead lines had the top-seeded Broncos favored by roughly 1.5 points at Mile High. However, with veteran backup Jarrett Stidham now confirmed as the starter for the AFC Championship, the line has moved a staggering six points in New England's favor.

This shift makes the 2026 Broncos the biggest home underdog in conference championship history, surpassing the 2012 Atlanta Falcons (who were +3.5 against the 49ers). The NFL playoff betting trends suggest that home underdogs are often dangerous, but the sheer magnitude of this adjustment highlights the lack of confidence markets have in a rust-heavy Stidham against a surging Patriots defense. New England, riding the momentum of a dominant Divisional Round win over the Texans, has seen 73% of early spread money pouring in on them, forcing books to hold the line at -4.5 despite the historical precedent.

Jarrett Stidham vs. Drake Maye: A Quarterback Mismatch?

Sunday's AFC clash will be defined by the disparity under center. On one side, you have Drake Maye, the Patriots' second-year sensation who has played at an MVP level down the stretch. Maye's dual-threat ability and poise were on full display in the 28-16 victory against Houston. On the other side is Jarrett Stidham, who hasn't started a game in over a year and must now navigate a Belichick-influenced defense that thrives on confusing backup quarterbacks.

Bo Nix Injury News Betting Impact

The Bo Nix injury news betting impact cannot be overstated. Nix was instrumental in Denver's 15-3 run, offering stability and clutch playmaking. Stidham, while familiar with Sean Payton's system, lacks the game reps to inspire bettor confidence. Prop markets have adjusted accordingly, with the total for the game dropping to 42.5 points, signaling expectations of a defensive struggle where Denver attempts to hide its quarterback behind a strong run game and elite defense.

Rams vs. Seahawks: Super Bowl-Level Wagering Volume

While the AFC drama centers on injuries, the NFC Championship between the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks is generating Super Bowl LX betting handle numbers. This rubber match between NFC West rivals—who split their season series with a combined point differential of just one point—is drawing massive two-way action. The Rams vs Seahawks point spread sits at Seahawks -2.5, a number that respects Seattle's home-field advantage at Lumen Field while acknowledging the Rams' overtime resilience against the Bears.

Sportsbooks are reporting handle usually reserved for the Super Bowl itself, driven by the star power of Matthew Stafford and the Seahawks' rejuvenated