With kickoff for Super Bowl LX just three days away, the betting market is witnessing a historic surge in action that has major U.S. sportsbooks sweating. As of Thursday, February 5, 2026, the Seattle Seahawks have solidified their position as 4.5-point favorites over the New England Patriots, driven by a wave of public money that has created massive financial liability for operators like BetMGM and DraftKings. The spread, which opened at Seahawks -3, has climbed steadily, reacting to both the volume of bets and the latest injury news concerning Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold.
Seahawks vs Patriots Spread: Analyzing the Line Movement
The movement in the Seahawks vs Patriots spread tells the story of a confident public betting against the books. Opening at -3, the line quickly crossed the key number of -3.5 and has now settled at -4.5 across most major platforms. This shift is significant; in Super Bowl 60 betting trends, favorites of 4.5 points or more have historically had mixed results, but bettors are undeterred. Reports indicate that over 70% of the handle is backing Seattle to cover, leaving sportsbooks with a lopsided need for a Patriots cover or an outright upset to balance their ledgers.
The aggressive line movement is also a reaction to the Seahawks' dominant 14-3 season under head coach Mike Macdonald. Despite the New England Patriots' impressive turnaround under Mike Vrabel, the betting public is clearly favoring Seattle’s explosive offense, which has looked unstoppable since the trade that sent Geno Smith away and handed the keys to Darnold.
Sam Darnold Injury Betting Impact & Market Reaction
A critical factor driving the volatility in Super Bowl LX betting odds is the health of the starting quarterbacks. Thursday's injury report confirmed that Patriots QB Drake Maye is a full participant, showing no lingering effects from the AFC Championship game. However, the Sam Darnold injury betting impact remains the X-factor. Darnold, currently managing an oblique strain, was listed as limited in practice today.
Despite the limitation, sharp bettors seem unconcerned, perhaps buoyed by Darnold's gritty performance in the NFC Championship where he threw for 346 yards. However, if Darnold's mobility—a key part of his resurgence—is compromised, the Patriots' defense could exploit this. Bettors should monitor the Friday practice reports closely; any downgrade in Darnold’s status could trigger a late buy-back on the Patriots, potentially driving the number back down toward 4.
NFL Sportsbook Liability: Why the Books Need New England
The current NFL sportsbook liability scenario is shaping up to be one of the most dramatic in recent Super Bowl history. With the public hammering the Seahawks spread and moneyline, sportsbooks are essentially rooting for Drake Maye and the Patriots. A Seahawks blowout victory would result in a "worst-case scenario" payout for the books.
Conversely, New England represents immense value for contrarian bettors. The Patriots, led by the youthful poise of Drake Maye, have thrived as underdogs this season. Their defensive scheme, orchestrated by Vrabel, is designed to confuse quarterbacks—a narrative that could haunt Darnold given his history, though he has largely shed those "ghosts" during this MVP-caliber campaign.
Drake Maye Player Props & Key Matchups
For those looking to diversify away from the spread, the Drake Maye player props market offers intriguing value. Maye’s rushing totals are currently set at 32.5 yards, a number he has eclipsed in three of his last four games. With Seattle’s pass rush likely to force him out of the pocket, the "over" on Maye’s rushing yards is becoming a popular sharp play.
On the other side, prop bettors are eyeing Seahawks receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. With Darnold’s oblique issue potentially limiting deep throws, expect a heavy dose of intermediate routes, boosting Smith-Njigba’s reception total over 6.5. These specific NFL championship game picks allow bettors to hedge against the volatility of the main spread.
Halftime & Novelty Props
Beyond the gridiron, novelty props for Super Bowl LX are seeing heavy action, particularly surrounding the halftime show featuring Bad Bunny. Bettors are wagering on everything from the opening song to potential guest appearances, adding another layer of excitement to the festivities at Levi's Stadium.
Final Thoughts: Making Your Super Bowl 60 Picks
As we approach Sunday's kickoff at Levi's Stadium, the narrative is clear: it’s the redemption of Sam Darnold versus the arrival of Drake Maye. While the public is all-in on Seattle, the smart money often looks for value when the line becomes inflated. With the spread now touching 4.5, the value is beginning to shift toward the Patriots, especially if Darnold is less than 100%.
Whether you are backing the favorite or taking the points, ensure you shop for the best lines, as Super Bowl LX betting odds will continue to fluctuate right up until kickoff.
