As the clock ticks down to Super Bowl LX this Sunday at Levi's Stadium, the betting markets have settled into a tense standoff. The Seattle Seahawks remain 4.5-point favorites over the New England Patriots, a line that hasn't budged since opening night. With the memory of Super Bowl XLIX's goal-line heartbreak still lingering in the Pacific Northwest, this 2026 rematch offers more than just a championship—it offers exorcism. But for sharp bettors, the real story isn't the narrative; it's the numbers. With the point total holding steady at 45.5 and money pouring in on both sides, the stage is set for a defensive slugfest in Santa Clara.

Super Bowl LX Betting Odds: The Spread and Moneyline Breakdown

The Super Bowl LX betting odds opened with Seattle as a 4-point favorite immediately after the conference championship games, quickly ticking up to -4.5 where it has stubbornly remained. As of Tuesday, February 3, 2026, major sportsbooks have the Seahawks at -210 on the Super Bowl 60 moneyline, implying a roughly 67% win probability. The Patriots, led by head coach Mike Vrabel, are sitting at +175 underdogs, a price that has attracted significant value bets from those trusting New England's suffocating playoff defense.

"The public is still haunted by the Seahawks' consistency this year," notes senior analyst Mark Reeves. "But the sharps are looking at that 4.5 number and seeing value in a Patriots team that has allowed just 8.7 points per game in this postseason run." The Seahawks vs Patriots point spread reflects a clash of philosophies: Seattle's balanced, efficiency-driven machine against New England's gritty, defensive-minded upset artists.

Quarterback Clash: Drake Maye vs Sam Darnold Odds

Perhaps the most surprising storyline of Super Bowl 60 is the quarterback matchup. On one side, you have Sam Darnold, the ultimate redemption story, who has guided Seattle to a 14-3 record and the NFC's top seed. On the other, sophomore sensation Drake Maye, an MVP finalist who has revitalized the Patriots franchise. The Drake Maye vs Sam Darnold odds for Super Bowl MVP are nearly neck-and-neck, with Darnold at +120 and Maye at +250.

Darnold's renaissance under Mike Macdonald has been built on mistake-free football and explosive play-action, utilizing weapons like Jaxon Smith-Njigba and midseason acquisition Rashid Shaheed. Conversely, Maye has been a chaotic force of nature, using his legs and arm talent to extend plays when the pocket breaks down. Prop bettors are heavily targeting Maye's rushing yardage (O/U 38.5) and Darnold's completion percentage (O/U 66.5%), expecting Seattle to play conservative while New England is forced to improvise.

NFL Player Prop Bets to Watch

Beyond the quarterbacks, the NFL player prop bets market is heating up around the defensive stars. With both teams boasting top-5 scoring defenses, the "Under" on offensive touchdowns is seeing action. However, specific skill players are drawing attention:

  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA): Over 74.5 receiving yards. JSN has been Darnold's safety blanket on third downs.
  • Rashid Shaheed (SEA): Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+180). His speed on the Levi's Stadium turf could be the X-factor.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (NE): Over 65.5 rushing yards. Vrabel's game plan will likely hinge on establishing the run to keep Seattle's pass rush at bay.

Analyzing the Trends: History Favoring the Underdog?

When looking at Super Bowl betting trends, history offers a cautionary tale for Seahawks backers. In the last 25 Super Bowls, underdogs are 17-8 against the spread (ATS), and outright upsets have become increasingly common. The Patriots themselves are no strangers to this role; their path to Santa Clara mirrors the grit-and-grind style that often prevails in February.

Furthermore, the "defense wins championships" adage supports the Under 45.5 play. Seattle finished the regular season with the #1 scoring defense (17.2 ppg), while New England ranked 5th (18.9 ppg) but has been historically dominant in the playoffs. NFL Super Bowl 2026 predictions from algorithmic models are projecting a 23-20 type of game, which would narrowly cover the spread for New England while hitting the Under.

The Verdict: A Tactical Chess Match

As we inch closer to kickoff, the narrative of the "Rematch" will dominate the headlines, but bettors should focus on the trenches. The Seahawks' defensive line, led by Leonard Williams, versus the Patriots' offensive front will likely decide if the -4.5 spread is a trap or a gift. With the line holding firm, the books are daring the public to back the favorite, but the smart money might just be waiting for the hook to drop to -4 before pounding the Seahawks, or grabbing the +4.5 now with a Patriots team that refuses to quit.