The stage is set for a historic rematch at Levi's Stadium as oddsmakers have installed the Seattle Seahawks as 4.5-point favorites over the New England Patriots for Super Bowl LX. Following the Seahawks' thrilling 31-27 victory over the Rams and the Patriots' gritty defensive stand against the Broncos in the Conference Championships, early betting action is already surging. Analysts project a shattering $1.71 billion in legal wagers, marking a new milestone in legal sports betting record history as the NFL concludes its 2025-2026 season.

Super Bowl LX Betting Odds: The Numbers Game

As the lines stabilized on Wednesday morning, the Seahawks vs Patriots spread settled at Seattle -4.5 across most major sportsbooks, with the total (over/under) opening at 45.5 points. The moneyline sees Seattle as -215 favorites, implying a roughly 68% probability of lifting the Lombardi Trophy.

"This number feels reactionary to Seattle's offensive explosion in the NFC Championship," notes senior handicap analyst Mark Stevens. "While the public loves backing the favorite with the hot quarterback in Sam Darnold, the sharp money is already eyeing the Patriots at +4.5, specifically given the defensive nature of their path to Santa Clara."

Record-Breaking Handle Predicted

The explosion of regulated markets over the last year has led to a staggering forecast. The projected $1.71 billion in handle would obliterate previous records, driven largely by the expansion of in-game wagering and the massive volume of Super Bowl 60 prop bets expected to flood the market before kickoff on February 8, 2026.

The Shawn Smith Factor: A Boost for the Underdog?

For savvy bettors, the assignment of referee Shawn Smith to officiate Super Bowl LX is a critical piece of the puzzle. Digging into Shawn Smith referee stats reveals a trend that could heavily favor the New England Patriots. Over the last three seasons, home teams (or in this neutral site context, the favorites) have covered the spread at a rate of just 37% under Smith's crew.

Smith is known for allowing physical play in the secondary, a tendency that historically benefits defensive-minded underdogs. "When you look at Super Bowl betting trends 2026, the officiating crew is often the most overlooked variable," says betting strategist Sarah Chen. "Smith's crew calls fewer defensive holding penalties than the league average, which plays directly into the hands of New England's aggressive secondary as they try to stifle Seattle's passing attack."

Seahawks vs. Patriots: The Rematch Narrative

It has been 11 years since Malcolm Butler's goal-line interception in Super Bowl XLIX denied Seattle a back-to-back title. Now, the franchises meet again with entirely new casts. Seattle's offense, led by the resurgent Sam Darnold and the electric Jaxon Smith-Njigba—who posted 153 receiving yards in the NFC title game—looks unstoppable on paper.

However, the Patriots have embraced their underdog identity. After winning a 10-7 slog against Denver in the AFC Championship, they have proven comfortable in low-scoring, high-pressure games. This contrast of styles makes the Super Bowl moneyline movement worth watching closely; if the total drops, it indicates sharp bettors expect a defensive struggle rather than a shootout.

Venue and Prop Bet Implications

Levi's Stadium presents its own variables. The grass surface in Santa Clara has historically been slower, potentially neutralizing some of Seattle's speed advantage. This factor is already influencing NFL Super Bowl 60 prop bets, with "Under" wagers on longest reception yardage seeing early interest.

Additionally, the "Coin Toss" prop remains a classic favorite, but sharper props are focusing on turnover margins. Given Shawn Smith's tendency to let players play, aggressive defensive props—like "Total Sacks Over 4.5"—are offering intriguing value for bettors looking to diversify beyond the spread.

Conclusion: Where is the Value?

While the public is enamored with Seattle's high-flying offense, the 4.5-point spread offers significant value on a Patriots team that specializes in muddying the game script. With Super Bowl LX betting odds likely to tighten as kickoff approaches, locking in the Patriots at +4.5 or better could be the sharpest early move of the week.