The stage is set for Super Bowl LX at Levi's Stadium, and if the early betting action is any indication, the Seattle Seahawks are commanding significant respect from the professional betting community. Following the conclusion of the NFL Conference Championships, oddsmakers initially installed the Seahawks as 3.5-point favorites over the AFC Champion New England Patriots. However, a wave of Super Bowl LX opening odds action—driven largely by sharp money—has swiftly pushed the spread through the key number of 4, with Seattle now sitting as a consensus 4.5-point favorite at most major sportsbooks as of Monday, February 2.

Sharps Hammer the Opening Line

The movement from -3.5 to -4.5 is significant in NFL betting markets, often signaling a strong consensus between high-volume professional bettors and the betting public. According to early reports from Las Vegas and offshore operators, the Seahawks have attracted approximately 71% of the early handle (total money wagered) on the spread.

Unlike scenarios where "Pros vs. Joes" divide the market, this year's Super Bowl 60 opening lines suggest a unified front. The Seahawks' dominant 14-5-0 against-the-spread (ATS) record this season, capped by their convincing NFC Championship performance, appears to be the primary driver. While the line briefly touched -5.0 at select books late last week, buy-back money on the Patriots helped stabilize the market at Seattle -4.5 entering Super Bowl week.

"We saw immediate liquidity hit the screen the moment we opened Seattle -3.5," noted one senior risk manager. "It wasn't just public money; it was respected accounts laying the points with the Seahawks, forcing us to adjust to -4.5 rapidly to balance our liability."

A Historic Rematch: Ghosts of Super Bowl XLIX

For fans and bettors alike, this matchup is impossible to discuss without invoking the memory of Super Bowl XLIX. Eleven years ago, the Patriots and Seahawks collided in Glendale, Arizona, resulting in one of the most dramatic finishes in sports history—Malcolm Butler's goal-line interception.

While the rosters have completely turned over, the narrative of "unfinished business" is already fueling the media cycle and likely influencing the Seahawks vs Patriots spread. This psychological angle, combined with the factual reality that Seattle is fielding the league's top-ranked defense (allowing just 17.1 points per game), has created a perception that the Seahawks are better equipped to close out a championship this time around.

Quarterback Clash: Darnold vs. Maye

The quarterback matchup offers a fascinating contrast in career arcs, directly impacting the Super Bowl MVP betting favorites market.

  • Sam Darnold (Seattle): The veteran signal-caller has completed a remarkable career resurgence, guiding Seattle's offense with efficiency and poise. He opens as the heavy favorite (+130) to win Super Bowl MVP, a testament to his consistent play and the historical trend of quarterbacks winning the award.
  • Drake Maye (New England): At just 23 years old, Maye becomes the second-youngest quarterback to start a Super Bowl. While his raw talent is undeniable, NFL sharp money trends historically fade inexperienced quarterbacks against elite defenses in the Super Bowl. Maye's ability to handle the complex Seahawks defensive schemes will be the game's defining variable.

Total and Prop Market Movements

While the spread has seen decisive movement, the total (Over/Under) has experienced its own volatility. Opening at 45.5, the number was quickly bet up to 47.5 before settling back down to 46.5. This "up-and-down" movement suggests a tug-of-war between bettors expecting a defensive struggle and those trusting the offensive efficiency of both units.

In the Super Bowl prop bets 2026 market, early interest is surging on defensive props. Given the strength of both units—New England ranked second in points allowed (17.3)—bettors are hammering "Under" on individual player yardage totals. Additionally, the halftime show featuring Bad Bunny has sparked its own niche market of novelty props regarding setlists and guest appearances, adding to the massive NFL championship betting handle expected for this game.

Final Betting Outlook

As we march closer to kickoff on February 8, expect the line to face resistance if it creeps toward the next key number of 6 or 7. For now, the Seahawks at -4.5 represents a market convinced of their superiority, but the Patriots—and their knack for defying the odds in January—cannot be discounted. Bettors backing New England might find value in waiting, as public money often continues to pour in on the favorite throughout the week, potentially offering a better price on the underdog Patriots by kickoff.