The path to the No. 1 overall pick appears clearer than ever. Fernando Mendoza, the Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback who led the Indiana Hoosiers to a historic National Championship victory last month, has confirmed he will attend the 2026 NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis but will not participate in on-field drills. The decision, reported Tuesday, solidifies the growing consensus that the Las Vegas Raiders have already zeroed in on the pocket passer to launch the Klint Kubiak era.
A Business Decision for the Consensus No. 1
Mendoza’s choice to bypass the throwing sessions and athletic testing is a calculated move typical of presumptive top picks. Following a 2025 campaign where he threw for 41 touchdowns and orchestrated an unbeaten Big Ten run, scouts and executives largely agree there is little left for the 6-foot-5 signal-caller to prove in shorts and a t-shirt. Instead, Mendoza will focus on team interviews and medical evaluations—the only remaining hurdles between him and the top spot on the draft board.
"When you put up the tape Fernando did against Ohio State and in the title game, the combine drills are just noise," said an AFC scouting director. "He’s a rhythm thrower who wins with anticipation. Throwing to unfamiliar receivers in an empty stadium doesn't showcase his superpower, which is dissecting defenses in real-time."
The Klint Kubiak Connection: A Perfect Scheme Fit
The speculation linking Mendoza to Las Vegas intensified last week when the Raiders officially hired Klint Kubiak as their new head coach. Fresh off a Super Bowl run as an offensive coordinator, Kubiak brings a Shanahan-style offensive philosophy that prioritizes timing, accuracy, and processing speed over raw athleticism—traits that define Mendoza’s game.
The Las Vegas Raiders No. 1 pick is a critical asset for a franchise looking to turn the page after a disastrous 3-14 finish in 2025. The experiment with Geno Smith failed to yield results, and the organization is desperate for stability. Kubiak’s system relies on a quarterback who can execute play-action concepts and deliver the ball on time to the intermediate middle of the field. This aligns perfectly with Mendoza’s scouting report, which often draws comparisons to Matt Ryan and Jared Goff rather than dual-threat outliers.
Scouting the "Indiana Savior"
Mendoza's rise from a transfer quarterback to the face of college football is one of the draft's best storylines. After transferring from Cal to Indiana, he flourished under head coach Curt Cignetti. In his final collegiate season, Mendoza posted a completion rate over 70%, expertly managing the Hoosiers' high-powered offense.
While critics point to his lack of elite mobility—Fox Sports analyst Colin Cowherd recently noted Mendoza "is not an Andrew Luck athlete"—his pocket presence is considered elite. In a 2026 NFL Mock Draft landscape considered light on quarterback depth, Mendoza’s high floor makes him the safest investment for a rookie head coach like Kubiak who needs to win the locker room immediately.
2026 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings Breakdown
Mendoza’s decision effectively freezes his stock at the summit. With other top prospects like edge rushers and tackles likely to dominate the combine workouts, the quarterback conversation will remain centered on the Raiders' intentions. The gap between Mendoza and the next tier of quarterbacks has widened significantly since the College Football Playoff.
By skipping the drills, Mendoza avoids the risk of a poor showing while allowing the Raiders to maintain the narrative that he is their guy. For Las Vegas, securing an Indiana football quarterback who just delivered a national title would be a marketing coup as much as a football decision. The Silver and Black have long searched for a franchise savior; in Mendoza, they see a player who has already proven he can carry a program to unprecedented heights.
As the NFL world descends on Indianapolis next week, all eyes will be on Mendoza’s podium session. But barring a medical red flag, the first card submitted by Las Vegas on draft night seems all but written.
