In a stunning turn of events for AFC Championship betting odds, the Denver Broncos have officially become the largest home underdogs in a conference title game since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. Following the confirmation that rookie sensation Bo Nix will miss Sunday's showdown due to a fractured ankle, sportsbooks witnessed a seismic shift in the Patriots vs Broncos point spread, with New England now sitting as 5.5-point road favorites at Empower Field at Mile High.

Historic Line Movement: A Betting Market Reaction Like No Other

The betting landscape for the 2026 AFC Championship changed instantly the moment Broncos head coach Sean Payton ruled out Bo Nix. Opening lines had the Broncos as modest 4.5-point underdogs, a number that respected their home-field advantage despite the injury news. However, the market has aggressively corrected, pushing the spread to +5.5—a historic figure for a conference championship host.

To put this in perspective, no home team in this round has faced such long odds since the merger. You have to go back to the 1968 NFL Championship, when the Cleveland Browns hosted the Baltimore Colts, to find a home underdog of this magnitude. The line movement reflects not just the loss of Nix, who led Denver to a thrilling overtime victory against the Bills in the Divisional Round, but the massive confidence bettors have in the Patriots' surge under MVP candidate Drake Maye.

Jarrett Stidham Start Betting Impact: Can the Backup Buck the Trend?

The narrative of Sunday's game now centers squarely on the Jarrett Stidham start betting impact. Stidham, who began his career as a New England draft pick in 2019, steps into the pressure cooker of an AFC Championship against his former team. While the drop-off from Nix to Stidham is statistically significant, sharp bettors are looking at Stidham's preseason performance in 2025—where he threw for 376 yards and four touchdowns—as a sign of competency.

"Stidham isn't a rookie; he knows this system," Payton told reporters Friday. Despite the vote of confidence, the markets are pricing in a difficult day for the Denver offense. Prop bets on Denver's total points have plummeted, and the Under (41.5) has seen heavy action. However, contrarian bettors are eyeing the Drake Maye vs Jarrett Stidham odds closely, noting that Stidham's mobility and familiarity with the Patriots' defensive scheme could offer back-door cover potential for the +5.5 spread.

Patriots vs Broncos: The Mile High Curse vs. The Road Warriors

For those looking at NFL conference championship picks, two conflicting trends are colliding. On one side, you have the "Mile High Curse" for New England. The Patriots franchise is historically 0-4 in playoff games at Denver, including heartbreaking losses in the 2013 and 2015 AFC Championship Games. The altitude and hostile crowd have traditionally neutralized New England's advantages.

On the other hand, the 2025-2026 Patriots have been road warriors, boasting a perfect 8-0 record away from Gillette Stadium this season. Drake Maye has been unflappable in hostile environments, a key factor driving the Super Bowl 2026 betting futures which now list New England as the heavy favorite to represent the AFC. The Patriots have won 15 of their last 16 games, a run of dominance that makes laying the points on the road tempting for public bettors.

NFL Playoff Betting Trends 2026: The Value of the Home Dog

Before rushing to lay the 5.5 points with New England, consider the NFL playoff betting trends 2026. Home underdogs have been a goldmine in recent postseasons. Just weeks ago, the Carolina Panthers, despite a losing record, covered as massive home underdogs against the Rams. Historically, home dogs of 4+ points in the playoffs are 9-0 Against The Spread (ATS) over the last 50 years.

This trend suggests that while the Broncos may be outmatched at quarterback, the situational value lies with the home team. Denver's defense, which ranked top-5 in DVOA this season, will be asked to carry the load. If they can force Maye into rookie mistakes—something he has largely avoided in Year 2—the Broncos could keep this game within the historic number.

Final Betting Outlook

Sunday's clash is a battle between current form and historical precedent. The Super Bowl 2026 betting futures will shift dramatically based on whether Stidham can manage the game or if Maye continues his coronation. For bettors, the 5.5 points is a luxury in a conference title game, making the Broncos a terrifying but statistically backed contrarian play.