The NFL betting landscape was rocked this Tuesday as the Denver Broncos' Super Bowl 60 odds plummeted following the confirmation of a season-ending ankle injury to rookie sensation Bo Nix. In a stunning market correction, sportsbooks have responded by flipping the script for Sunday's AFC Championship Game, installing the New England Patriots as significant 5-point road favorites at Empower Field at Mile High.
Bo Nix Injury Betting Impact: From Favorite to Underdog
The news broke early Tuesday morning when Broncos head coach Sean Payton confirmed what many feared after Sunday's thrilling 33-30 overtime victory against the Buffalo Bills: Bo Nix officially suffered a fractured ankle in the game's final moments. The impact on AFC Championship betting odds 2026 was immediate and violent. Opening lines that had the top-seeded Broncos (15-3) as 2.5-point home favorites evaporated within minutes, replaced by a line that heavily favors the visiting Patriots.
"We haven't seen a swing this drastic in a Conference Championship game in over a decade," said a senior trader at a major Las Vegas sportsbook. "Bo Nix has been the catalyst for Denver's offense all season. The drop-off to a backup quarterback, even a capable one, is worth at least 7 points to the spread in this specific matchup."
Patriots vs Broncos Point Spread: Why New England is Surging
The New England Patriots, coming off a clinical 28-16 dismantling of the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round, are now in the driver's seat. Bettors are flooding the window to back New England, driving the Patriots vs Broncos point spread to -5. The market confidence stems not just from Denver's loss, but from New England's dominance. Led by quarterback Drake Maye, the Patriots (16-3) have looked unstoppable, and their defense—ranked top-3 in the league—is perfectly built to exploit a backup quarterback situation.
Jarrett Stidham Betting Odds and the "Revenge Game" Narrative
With Nix out, the keys to the kingdom are handed to veteran backup Jarrett Stidham. Interestingly, this creates a compelling narrative: Stidham was originally drafted by the Patriots in 2019. Now, he stands between his former team and a trip to Super Bowl 60.
Despite signing a two-year, $12 million extension with Denver last offseason, Jarrett Stidham betting odds suggest skepticism from the public. Prop bets on Stidham's passing yards have opened conservatively at 185.5 yards, with the "Under" seeing early action. Stidham started all 17 games as a backup in 2024 and 2025 but hasn't faced a high-pressure situation like this since the 2023 season ender. Can he manage the game against a ferocious Patriots pass rush?
Super Bowl 60 Futures Shift
The ripple effect of the NFL injury report betting news has completely reshaped the futures market. The Broncos, previously the favorites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at Levi's Stadium next month, have seen their Super Bowl 60 futures shift dramatically, lengthening from +250 to +1000 at some books. Conversely, the Patriots are now the AFC favorites to win it all, sitting at +250, just behind the NFC's top contender.
- New England Patriots: Moved from +450 to +250
- Denver Broncos: Moved from +250 to +1000
- Seattle Seahawks (NFC): Remain steady at +145
NFL Playoff Betting News: Key Factors to Watch
As we approach Sunday, smart money will be monitoring several variables beyond the quarterback change. The weather in Denver is forecast to be cold but clear, which typically favors the passing game—a factor that might now disadvantage the Broncos without Nix's arm talent. Additionally, the Bo Nix injury betting impact extends to the total (over/under), which has crashed from 47.5 down to 41.5, suggesting oddsmakers expect a defensive grind.
For bettors looking for value, the Patriots' moneyline (-220) offers security, but the spread (-5) requires faith that New England can win by a touchdown on the road in a hostile environment. Meanwhile, contrarian bettors might look at the Broncos +5, banking on Denver's elite defense to keep the game close regardless of who is under center.