If you needed a reminder that March is right around the corner, this Saturday provided a deafening wake-up call. In a slate defined by total chaos, the March Madness betting odds 2026 were completely upended as the nation’s top two teams—and several other top-10 contenders—suffered shocking defeats. With Selection Sunday just three weeks away, the betting market is scrambling to adjust to a new reality where the Duke Blue Devils have arguably seized the mantle of national title favorites.

A New Favorite Emerges: Duke Topples No. 1 Michigan

The headline event of the weekend took place in Washington, D.C., where No. 3 Duke handed No. 1 Michigan a grit-and-grind 68-63 loss. This wasn't just a regular-season resume builder; it was a potential Final Four betting favorites preview. Duke freshman sensation Cameron Boozer was the difference-maker, tallying 18 points and 10 rebounds to outduel Michigan's veteran lineup.

For bettors holding College basketball championship futures on the Wolverines, Saturday was a sobering check. Michigan, previously riding an 11-game win streak, looked vulnerable against Duke’s length and athleticism. Sportsbooks reacted immediately on Sunday morning, with Duke’s odds to cut down the nets shortening significantly, leapfrogging Michigan in many markets. The Blue Devils' ability to win a neutral-site defensive battle suggests they are built for the grind of the NCAA Tournament.

Top-10 Carnage: Houston, Kansas, and Iowa State Stumble

Duke’s ascension was only half the story. The College basketball upset alerts were blaring across the country as highly-seeded teams fell one by one. In a massive Big 12 showdown, No. 4 Arizona went into the Fertitta Center and stunned No. 2 Houston, 73-66. The Wildcats, led by Anthony Dell'Orso's 22 points, capitalized on a late Cougars scoring drought. This result has pushed Arizona firmly into the tier of legitimate title contenders, offering value for bettors who jumped on their slightly longer odds last week.

The carnage didn't stop there. No. 6 Iowa State, projected as a No. 1 seed by the committee just hours before tip-off, was ambushed in Provo. BYU’s freshman phenom AJ Dybantsa dropped 29 points, 10 rebounds, and nine assists to lead the Cougars to a 79-69 victory. Meanwhile, in Lawrence, No. 8 Kansas looked lifeless in an 84-68 blowout loss to Cincinnati, with Bearcats center Moustapha Thiam scoring a career-high 28 points.

West Coast Thriller

Even the late-night action delivered drama. UCLA pulled off a miraculous 95-94 overtime win against No. 10 Illinois, erasing a 23-point first-half deficit. Donovan Dent’s game-winning layup with one second remaining not only saved the Bruins’ weekend but likely solidified their seeding, making them a dangerous floater in the Best bets college basketball Sunday discussions.

Bubble Watch: Iowa and Ohio State Gain Ground

While the giants were falling, teams on the fringe took advantage of the spotlight. The NCAA tournament bubble watch odds have shifted favorably for two Big Ten programs: the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Ohio State Buckeyes.

Coming off a week where Iowa upset Nebraska and Ohio State took down Wisconsin, both teams have moved from "First Four Out" territory to potentially securing byes. Oddsmakers have noticed the Buckeyes' defensive intensity and Iowa's improved efficiency at the free-throw line. For bettors looking at "To Make the Tournament" props, the window to get plus-money value on these squads is closing fast. Their recent form suggests they are peaking at the right time, a classic indicator for March success.

Selection Sunday 2026 Predictions & Market Outlook

With the dust settling on a wild Saturday, the landscape for Selection Sunday 2026 predictions is more fluid than ever. The committee's early bracket reveal is already outdated. Duke has a clear path to a No. 1 seed, potentially in the East Region, while the Big 12's cannibalization (Houston, Kansas, and Iowa State all losing) opens the door for a team like Arizona or even an SEC contender to steal a top line.

Best bets college basketball Sunday advice? Look for value in the futures market on teams like Arizona (+1100 range) and BYU, who proved they can beat elite competition. Conversely, be wary of buying the dip on Kansas, whose defensive lapses against Cincinnati raise serious concerns for a deep March run. As we inch closer to the tournament, volatility is the only guarantee—and Saturday proved that no ticket is safe until the final buzzer sounds.